Projects funded by the NCN

Information on the principal investigator and host institution

Information of the project and the call

Keywords

Equipment

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Crossing Frontiers in electricity prIce forecasTing (CrossFIT)

2018/30/A/HS4/00444

Keywords:

forecasting power market

Descriptors:

  • HS4_3: Econometrics, statistical methods
  • HS4_6: Financial markets, international finance, public finance
  • ST8_5: Power systems (production, distribution)

Panel:

HS4 - Individuals, institutions, markets: economics, finance, management, demography, social and economic geography, urban studies

Host institution :

Politechnika Wrocławska

woj. dolnośląskie

Other projects carried out by the institution 

Principal investigator (from the host institution):

prof. Rafał Weron 

Number of co-investigators in the project: 6

Call: MAESTRO 10 - announced on 2018-06-15

Amount awarded: 2 961 200 PLN

Project start date (Y-m-d): 2019-07-01

Project end date (Y-m-d): 2026-06-30

Project duration:: 60 months (the same as in the proposal)

Project status: Pending project

Project description

Download the project description in a pdf file

Note - project descriptions were prepared by the authors of the applications themselves and placed in the system in an unchanged form.

Information in the final report

  • Publication in academic press/journals (11)
  • Articles in post-conference publications (2)
  1. Beating the naive – Combining LASSO with naive intraday electricity price forecasts
    Authors:
    G. Marcjasz, B. Uniejewski, R. Weron
    Academic press:
    Energies (rok: 2020, tom: 13(7), strony: 1667), Wydawca: MDPI
    Status:
    Published
    DOI:
    10.3390/en13071667 - link to the publication
  2. Neural basis expansion analysis with exogenous variables: Forecasting electricity prices with NBEATSx
    Authors:
    K. Olivares, C. Challu, G. Marcjasz, R. Weron, A. Dubrawski
    Academic press:
    International Journal of Forecasting (rok: 2023, tom: 39, strony: 884-900), Wydawca: Elsevier
    Status:
    Published
    DOI:
    10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.03.001 - link to the publication
  3. Regularized quantile regression averaging for probabilistic electricity price forecasting
    Authors:
    B. Uniejewski, R. Weron
    Academic press:
    Energy Economics (rok: 2021, tom: 95, strony: 105121), Wydawca: Elsevier
    Status:
    Published
    DOI:
    10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105121 - link to the publication
  4. Combining predictive distributions of electricity prices. Does minimizing the CRPS lead to optimal decisions in day-ahead bidding?
    Authors:
    W. Nitka, R. Weron
    Academic press:
    Operations Research and Decisions (rok: 2023, tom: 33, strony: 103-116), Wydawca: Wrocław University of Science and Technology
    Status:
    Published
    DOI:
    10.37190/ord230307 - link to the publication
  5. Distributional neural networks for electricity price forecasting
    Authors:
    G. Marcjasz, M. Narajewski, R. Weron, F. Ziel
    Academic press:
    Energy Economics (rok: 2023, tom: 125, strony: 106843), Wydawca: Elsevier
    Status:
    Published
    DOI:
    10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106843 - link to the publication
  6. Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: A review of state-of-the-art algorithms, best practices and an open-access benchmark
    Authors:
    J. Lago, G. Marcjasz, B. De Schutter, R. Weron
    Academic press:
    Applied Energy (rok: 2021, tom: 293, strony: 116983), Wydawca: Elsevier
    Status:
    Published
    DOI:
    10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.116983 - link to the publication
  7. Optimal bidding in hourly and quarter-hourly electricity price auctions: Trading large volumes of power with market impact and transaction costs
    Authors:
    M. Narajewski, F. Ziel
    Academic press:
    Energy Economics (rok: 2022, tom: 110, strony: 105974), Wydawca: Elsevier
    Status:
    Published
    DOI:
    10.1016/j.eneco.2022.105974 - link to the publication
  8. Trading on short-term path forecasts of intraday electricity prices
    Authors:
    T. Serafin, G. Marcjasz, R. Weron
    Academic press:
    Energy Economics (rok: 2022, tom: 112, strony: 106125), Wydawca: Elsevier
    Status:
    Published
    DOI:
    10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106125 - link to the publication
  9. Balancing generation from renewable energy sources: Profitability of an energy trader
    Authors:
    C. Kath, W. Nitka, T. Serafin, T. Weron, P. Zaleski, R. Weron
    Academic press:
    Energies (rok: 2020, tom: 13(1), strony: 205), Wydawca: MDPI
    Status:
    Published
    DOI:
    10.3390/en13010205 - link to the publication
  10. The role of weather predictions in electricity price forecasting beyond the day-ahead horizon
    Authors:
    R. Sgarlato, F. Ziel
    Academic press:
    IEEE Transactions on Power Systems (rok: 2023, tom: 38, strony: 2500-2511), Wydawca: IEEE
    Status:
    Published
    DOI:
    10.1109/TPWRS.2022.3180119 - link to the publication
  11. Importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting revisited: Parameter-rich models estimated via the LASSO
    Authors:
    A. Jędrzejewski, G. Marcjasz, R. Weron
    Academic press:
    Energies (rok: 2021, tom: 14(11), strony: 3249), Wydawca: MDPI
    Status:
    Published
    DOI:
    10.3390/en14113249 - link to the publication
  1. Calibration window selection based on change-point detection for forecasting electricity prices
    Authors:
    J. Nasiadka, W. Nitka, R. Weron
    Conference:
    International Conference on Computational Science - ICCS 2022 (rok: 2022, ), Wydawca: Springer
    Data:
    konferencja 21-23 June 2022
    Status:
    Published
  2. Forecasting electricity prices: Autoregressive Hybrid Nearest Neighbors (ARHNN) method
    Authors:
    W. Nitka, T. Serafin, D. Sotiros
    Conference:
    International Conference on Computational Science - ICCS 2021 (rok: 2021, ), Wydawca: Springer
    Data:
    konferencja 16-18 June 2021
    Status:
    Published

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